PRODUCTION TRENDS AND EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIAN SAFFLOWER (CARTHAMUS TINCTORIUS L.): A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) is a drought-tolerant rabi oilseed of which India was once the world's largest producer. The present study analysed the trend of world and Indian safflower production and the export competitiveness of India in safflower seed. Data were drawn from FAOSTAT (2000–2024), the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (state-level, 2019-20 to 2023-24) and ITC Trade Map (HS 120760, 2014 2024). The compound growth rates, the coefficient of variation, the Cuddy–Della Valle instability index, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) indices, the trade specialisation index (TSI) and the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) of destination concentration were calculated. In 2024, India produced 50,214 t, 7.25 per cent of world production (692,515 t), down from 39.91 per cent in 2000, and ranked fifth behind Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, Mexico and the United States of America. The compound growth rates of area and production in India were −8.90 and −7.51 per cent per annum, respectively, during 2000–2024, while yield increased at 1.53 per cent per annum. From 2019-20 to 2023-24, Karnataka and Maharashtra accounted for 86.55 to 92.05 per cent of the national output each year. India's safflower exports decreased from USD 5.31 million in 2014 to USD 1.84 million in 2024, while its share in world exports declined from 13.93 to 3.95 per cent. The RCA index was above unity in all years but fell from 8.17 to 2.09, while the TSI was positive in all years. Exports went mainly to a few East and Southeast Asian markets, with the Philippines alone accounting for 31.44 per cent in 2024 (HHI 1,732). India has a revealed but fast vanishing comparative advantage in safflower seed; halting the decline in area, improving yields and expanding the market base are key to strengthening it.