FROM GROWTH TO FORECAST: ANALYSING THE DYNAMICS OF SESAME PRODUCTION IN INDIA

Abstract

Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) is an important oilseed crop in India and knowledge of its long-term production dynamics is relevant for agricultural planning. The present study aimed at analyzing the growth and instability of sesame area, production and productivity in India and predicting the future area and production based on the annual data from 1994-95 to 2023-24. The study period was subdivided into three 10-year sub-periods. The growth trends were estimated by compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis, the instability was determined by Cuddy-Della Valle instability index (CDVI) and the area and production were forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. During the entire study period, the production and productivity of sesame increased by 1.482% and 1.823% per year, respectively, while the area of sesame decreased by 0.336% per year. The overall CDVI values indicated low instability in area (8.999%), production (12.412%) and productivity (9.818%). Production had medium instability (17.559%) in Period I while area and productivity had low instability. The ARIMA (1,0,1) model had the lowest MAPE value for area (6.648%) and the ARIMA (0,1,1) model had the lowest MAPE value for production (10.817%). The point forecasts of sesame area and production of the selected models increased gradually over the forecast horizon. The results present quantitative evidence of the long-term growth, instability and forecast path of sesame production in India.