STABILITY ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S MANGO EXPORT MARKETS WITH DIFFERENT WEATHER CONDITIONS USING MACHINE LEARNING MODELS

Abstract

This study examines the quantity and average value of food production, as well as the stability of mango export markets of India. To estimate yield, a novel approach Simpson’s 1/3 rule model is presented at various variety levels. A new novel Machine learning (ML) model was used to estimated mango export of Indain market from 2026–2050,  and also examined impact of climate change, how the export volume and mango production is increased in India. A standard econometric technique: Markov Chain, Compound Annual Growth Rate and Minimization of Mean Absolute Deviation analysis were compared with Machine learning -Empirical Mode Decomposition model to forecast India’s fresh mango exports from 2026–2050. The findings suggest that mango production and export volume would increase if rising temperatures, water availability. The economic analysis indicates that global environmental changes positively impact mango production. Secondary data were collected from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), National Horticulture Board, APEDA - agriXchange, and Indiastat.