A STUDY ON GROWTH RATE OF COCOA IN INDIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SUPPLY RESPONSE IN ANDHRA PRADESH

Abstract

India's production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) has increased significantly over the previous 20 years, but it is still marked by price instability, stagnating productivity, and area-led growth. This study uses the Nerlovian partial adjustment framework to analyze the supply response of cocoa to price and non-price determinants in Andhra Pradesh and predicts the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of yield, area, and production throughout key producing states. At the national level, yield growth has either plateaued or decreased despite significant increases in area and production, suggesting a structural productivity difference. The area and production CAGRs for Andhra Pradesh were 7.91% and 11.72%, respectively. The necessity for regionally tailored policy interventions was highlighted by the much higher price responsiveness of East Godavari compared to Eluru (short-run: 4.06 vs. 0.68; long-run: 8.74 vs. 1.23). Productivity-focused extension, price stabilization through procurement infrastructure, and district-specific policy design are recommended to strengthen cocoa supply response and close the productivity gap.